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Chapter 9:  Conclusion

 

            Base on my data analysis, I use 36 different mathematical methods to minimize the risk of losing money, playing the California Mega Millions Lottery.  I come up with several conclusions.  They are as follow:

A)    Winning Percentage is very low, averaging at 2.3%, ranging mostly from 0 to 5% as indicated in HIVE table sorted by WinPercent in Section 7.5.

B)     Profits are mostly negative because most of the time the winnings are at winning 1 mega number.  The only chance to minimize losses is winning the 4 numbers, 5 numbers, and 6 numbers more often since winning 4 numbers is $718 comparing to $54 for 3 number and a mega number, $9 for 3 numbers, $6 for 2 numbers and a mega number, $2 for 1 number and a mega number, and $1 for a mega number.  There is a huge gap in prize amount below winning 4 numbers.  All the 9 sampling winning numbers that produce profit and 3 other sampling winning numbers that produces small losses have at least one 4 numbers winning as indicated in HIVE table sorted by profit in Section 7.5 since the prize for 4 numbers is a lot higher.

C)    The winning percentage doesn’t matter.  Even the winning percentage is higher than others, the winning prize amount is small since most of the winnings at higher winning percentage are 1 mega number winnings.  Winning 4 numbers’ prize is high compare to winning 1 mega number.  Winning percentage higher than 6% is still losing money while profits come from low 1 to 5% with at least one 4 number winning as indicated in the HIVE sorted by profit output table in Section 7.5.  I extracted only the profitable area from that table from Section 7.5.  It is shown in the table below:

2009to2005  all6med                                    173      2          1

2009to2005  top5numsNmega2                    182      3          1

2010to2005  top5numsNmega                      280      3          1

2011to2005  top5Nmega3                            382      3          1

2012to2005  individualbottomall6                  459      0          1

2012to2005  individualtop5NmegaSL4          465      0          1

2012to2005  individualtop5Nmega                480      5          1

2008to2005  individualtop5NmegaSL4          84        1          1

2008to2005  individualtop5Nmega                89        3          1

where column 1 is the sampling period, column 2 is the analysis method, column 3 is the profit, column 4 is the winning percentage, and column 5 is the number of 4 winning number count.

From observation, all profits have one 4 winning number count.  The shorter the testing period or longer the sampling period will result in more profit since longer period of testing time will erode away the profit if only won a single 4 winning number count.  In fact, winning a single 4 winning numbers ticket is consider to be lucky with the mathematical methods, described in Chapter 2 Section 2.2 and Chapter 3 Section 3.2 in this proof of concept.   The odds of winning 4 numbers are 1 in 5,085,024.  I am not that lucky to win 5 numbers or 6 numbers even I try since the odds of winning 5 numbers are 1 in  228,826,080, and the odds of winning 6 numbers are 1 in 10,068,347,520.

The most profitable methods as indicated from the most profitable table above are those individual drawing number calculations in reverse direction, not all top 6 drawing numbers together calculations, as I first believe.  Base on my observation, looks like doing the opposite way such as the bottom number calculations, reverse direction calculations, and shifting the reverse direction calculation numbers to the left methods are the most profitable.  Methods opposite from what everyone is thinking are more profitable when playing the California Mega Millions lottery. 

D)    My final conclusion, based on above conclusions, is the only way not to lose money is win 4 numbers, 5 numbers, or 6 numbers more often if playing the California Mega Millions Lottery.  The chance of doing that is very slim.  Or the wiser way not to lose money is not buying any California Mega Millions Lottery tickets.  If you don’t lose or gain any money, you are winning the game. 

 

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